Published October 26, 2026 in Market Update

33 sellers gave up, and none came back and sold

By Barbara Mills, REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker Realty

Real estate, Lake Pickett and north stats 10 22

After 31 years in this business, the number that stops me is not how many homes sold. It is how many did not. Forty homes came off the market here without a sale. Of those, 33 are gone for good. They are not for sale now. They did not come back and sell later. Not one. The question worth asking is: what did those 33 homes have in common?

The homes that gave up first asked $285,100 more than the homes that sold

The typical home that gave up first asked $935,000. The typical home that sold first asked $649,900. That is a $285,100 gap. Price was the single clearest line between the homes that found a buyer and the ones that did not. It was not the neighborhood. It was not the size. It was where the seller started.

Wait longer and you give up more than time

Homes that found a buyer in the first month got 98.9% of what they first asked. Homes that took until month three got 93.2%. Homes that took until month four got 92.1%. That is a difference of 6.8 percentage points off the first asking price just by waiting. On a $935,000 home, that gap is real money. The longer a home sits, the more a buyer feels they have the upper hand, and the data says they are right.

The shift in this market has been steady. In May and June 2026, nearly half of all lived-in homes, 47.1%, sold at or over what they first asked. By July and August 2026, that fell to 15.7%. Homes that went under contract in September took a typical 59 days to get there. In May, the typical home took 7 days.

Nearly 3 in 4 homes for sale right now have already dropped their price

Right now there are 80 homes for sale in this market. Of those, 72.5% have already dropped their price. The typical drop is $50,000. Together, sellers have cut a total of $5,509,027 from their asking prices. The biggest single cut is $1,800,000, in Horse Power Ranch. These are not small adjustments. They are corrections that could have happened before the listing went live.

The good news is that supply is still tight. At the pace homes have been selling lately, every home currently for sale would be gone in 3 months. Under 4 months of supply favors sellers. This market is still there. But the window for easy pricing is narrower than it was in the spring.

What this means for you right now

If you are selling, the most important number in this post is $285,100. That is how much higher the homes that gave up first asked, compared to the homes that sold. Pricing above what buyers are paying here does not produce a higher sale. It produces no sale. The 163 homes that did sell got 97.4% of what they first asked. Start at the right number and the market is still working. The 30-year fixed rate is at 7.32% right now, down slightly from 7.40% the week before, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. That rate shapes what buyers can afford, and it shapes what they will pay.

If you are buying, the shift since spring is worth understanding. Bidding wars have nearly stopped. The last one went under contract September 8 in Live Oak Reserve, 43 days ago. Only 6 lived-in homes have gone under contract since. Sellers are cutting prices, and 3 months of supply still keeps this from being a full buyer's market. But you have more room to negotiate than you did in May, and the data shows it.